The Ophthalmologist · March 2023
Deep in Thought Processes
A useful starting point for teams deciding which clinical problem to solve and what evidence to develop.
Read at publisher ↗MICHAEL MROCHEN, PhD SCIENTIST · ENTREPRENEUR · STRATEGIC ADVISOR
Independent judgment
for high-stakes
ophthalmic decisions.
I help investors, boards and ophthalmic teams determine what the evidence supports, which risks matter and what to do next.
A short, non-confidential overview is enough to begin. No commitment required.
START WITH YOUR DECISION
Where do you need
independent judgment?
FOR INVESTORS
Assess the evidence before your next ophthalmic investment.
A strong scientific result is only part of an investment case. I help examine the clinical need, evidence gaps and adoption assumptions that could change your decision.
Explore this perspective FOR OPHTHALMIC COMPANIESTurn ophthalmic innovation into a product clinicians will adopt.
I help ophthalmic CEOs and R&D leaders decide what to build, which evidence matters, where adoption may fail and which commercialization milestone should come next.
Explore this perspective FOR CLINIC GROUPSIntroduce innovation your patients and teams can use with confidence.
A promising procedure needs more than a successful first case. I help clinic leaders examine patient selection, team readiness, workflow and outcomes before broader implementation.
Explore this perspective FOR BOARDS & LEADERSHIP TEAMSChallenge assumptions before major commitments.
I bring independent scientific, clinical and entrepreneurial judgment to board and leadership discussions in ophthalmic technology.
Explore this perspectiveJUDGMENT IN PRACTICE
Evidence matters.
So does what comes next.
These examples show the decision, my contribution, what the evidence established and what remained uncertain.
01 / OPTICS + ENGINEERING
From optical measurement to individualized laser treatment.
Early results are useful when their limitations guide the next study or design decision.
See the decision case 02 / RESEARCH + TRANSLATIONFrom cross-linking research to clinical delivery.
Translation includes engineering, clinical evidence and a workable route to use.
See the decision case 03 / BIOLOGY + COMPANY BUILDINGDeveloping vision correction through tissue addition.
Technology, evidence generation and commercialization need to advance together.
See the decision caseA SIMPLE START
From first context
to defined work.
Knowing what happens next reduces unnecessary friction—for both sides.
- 01
Share the context.
Send a short, non-confidential overview of the decision and intended timing.
- 02
Test the fit.
An introductory discussion determines whether my experience is relevant.
- 03
Define the work.
Scope, outputs, timing and potential conflicts are agreed before any engagement.
Request an introductory discussion No commitment required.
THE WORK BEHIND THE JUDGMENT
Published. Invented.
Shared. Recognized.
ONE DECISION MODEL
Evidence can change
the investment case.
Explore how resolving a material uncertainty changes risk-adjusted project value in a simplified example.
Explore all three interactive modelsINTERACT / 03SCIENCE INTO VALUE
Which uncertainty could
change the investment case?
Evidence can change the estimated chance of success. Move the assumption to see its effect in this simplified example.
Illustrative risk-adjusted
project value
project value
€0€100m
Assumed probability of commercial success
10% · Higher risk90% · Lower risk
Change the assumed probability. The values of success and failure remain fixed.
Example only: €100m if successful and €0 if unsuccessful. This is a probability-weighted project illustration, not a company valuation.
Assumptions & valuation principle
This two-outcome illustration weights each assumed net present value by its probability. For example, a 45% chance of success gives 0.45 × €100m + 0.55 × €0 = €45m. Failure value is simplified to zero.
The outcome values are held fixed in today’s money, with costs and timing assumed to be included. The tool does not estimate evidence quality or infer a probability from a study. Real project values also depend on market opportunity, remaining costs and timing; company equity value additionally reflects financing and other assets and liabilities.
More research does not automatically increase value. New findings can raise or lower the estimated chance of success. No actual project, company or investment return is forecast.
Valuation principle: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern ↗Which clinical, technical or adoption uncertainty should you test before committing more capital?
Explore the investor perspective ↗PUBLISHED PERSPECTIVES
Ideas developed through practice.
The Ophthalmologist · December 2014
Translational Research: Innovate Horizontally
Relevant to development teams assessing whether an existing technology can answer an unmet clinical need.
Read at publisher ↗CRST Europe · February 2016
From Workbench to Clinical Proof of Concept: Mirricon
Relevant to founders, R&D leaders and investors deciding which milestone should come next.
Read at publisher ↗BEYOND THE LABORATORY
Two wheels.
Two skis.
A different perspective.
Away from the laboratory and the boardroom, I enjoy riding my BMW R 1200 R and skiing. Both give me a good reason to step away from a screen, spend time outdoors and enjoy the view. There is a person behind the publications—and I do occasionally close the laptop.